近日，财政税务学院青年教师俞秀梅与其合作者撰写的论文“Temperature Effects on Mortality and Household Adaptation: Evidence from China”在环境与资源经济学领域顶级期刊Journal of Environmental Economics and Management（JEEM）见刊发表。
论文英文简介
This paper examines the effects of extreme temperatures on mortality rates, using random year-to-year variation in temperature based on county-level panel data from China. The analysis finds a robust, U-shaped relationship between temperature and mortality rates, indicating that extremely cold or hot temperatures lead to excess deaths. The heat-related (cold-related) effect is 3.5 times (3.2 times) as large as previous findings that used U.S. data, and it is especially large for the elderly population, mainly due to excess deaths caused by cardiovascular diseases. Applying these results to Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model, version 2, Earth System climate change predictions shows that by 2061–2080 the annual mortality rate is likely to increase by 14.2% if greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise throughout the 21st century, the estimated health cost of which is around 0.98 trillion yuan per year. The paper also explores households’ adaptation behaviors to extreme temperatures. It finds that although urban households adaptively increase energy consumption when they are exposed to cold temperatures and purchase more air conditioners on hot and cold days, rural households are unresponsive to temperature fluctuations. This finding implies that rural people may be more resource constrained and suffer more when extreme temperatures occur.
论文中文简介
本文利用全国疾病监测系统（DSPs）县级层面的年度死亡率数据以及与这些抽样县相匹配的气象站日值数据，研究了气温对我国居民死亡率和家庭适应性行为的影响。结果表明，气温与死亡率之间有着非常稳健的正U型关系，过高或过低的气温都会导致死亡率增加。极端气温对老年人的影响尤其显著，其主要影响渠道为心脑血管疾病。并且文章发现极端气温对中国居民死亡率的影响要远大于文献中用美国数据得出的结论。利用回归结果以及气候变化预测模型HadGEM2-ES对未来气温的估计，文章发现在碳排放最高的场景RCP8.5下，若气温之外的其他条件不变，到2061-2080年气温的变动将导致中国居民死亡率增加14.2%。另外，适应性行为研究结果表明，我国居民在应对气温变化的适应性行为上存在巨大的城乡差异，城镇居民能更加灵活地调整其行为以适应气温变化。具体表现为城镇居民会在低温天气显著增加能源消耗，但农村居民的能源消耗受气温影响非常小；类似的，低温或高温都会增加城镇家庭的空调拥有量，而农村家庭的空调购买行为不受气温影响。
期刊介绍
Journal of Environmental Economics and Management 是由Elsevier出版社出版，致力于发表和环境与资源经济学相关的理论与实证文章，为SSCI来源期刊，是环境与资源经济学领域公认的顶级期刊。
俞秀梅，财政税务学院青年教师
俞秀梅老师是财政税务学院今年新引进的优秀青年教师，博士毕业于北京大学国家发展研究院。近年来财政税务学院深入开展一流学科建设，积极打造高端师资汇聚工程和学术研究攀升工程，不断加强高端人才引进和青年教师培养，持续构建科研成果激励机制和高水平学术成果培育，学院师资队伍结构不断优化，人才培养质量、学术科研水平和国际化程度稳步提升。
秉承中原大学财政信贷系光荣历史，经过几代财税人的奋斗，以“贡献财税新知、培养业界精英、推动社会发展”为使命，财政税务学院坚持走“国际化、强特色、创一流”的学科建设之路，通过提供一流服务、汇集一流学者、做一流学术、培养一流人才，努力把学院打造成“中国最具竞争力的国际化财税学院”，让学院成为“贡献财税新知的殿堂，培养业界精英的摇篮！”
文章链接：https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0095069618304054